TRAI — Research — HOOD — Robinhood Markets

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HOOD — Robinhood Markets

_Last updated 2026-11-02 11:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Retail brokerage: equities, options, crypto (app + Bitstamp), event contracts; revenue from transaction rebates, net interest and subscriptions.

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-27 AMC, call 5 PM ET (Robinhood IR, 2026-10-01).
September crypto notional $21.9B (+21% m/m), event contracts +37% m/m (TokenPost, 2026-09-29) — secondary source, verify against Robinhood's monthly metrics.

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

Sector (TRAI): Financials. Oct 22: -5.25%, relVol 1.04, ATR 5.49%, beta60 3.24, indicated gap -0.34% (TRAI /api/latest).
Next earnings: 2026-10-27 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 5.96% (0.95 ATR), max |gap| 11.90%, gap fill rate 25%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction +1.47% (TRAI /api/events).
Recent events: 2025-11-05 AMC: gap -1.74%, day-1 -9.23%, close-close -10.81%, EPS surprise 12.07%; 2026-02-10 AMC: gap -9.02%, day-1 +0.12%, close-close -8.91%, EPS surprise 3.8%; 2026-04-28 AMC: gap -11.90%, day-1 -1.52%, close-close -13.24%, EPS surprise -1.98%; 2026-07-29 AMC: gap +1.19%, day-1 -4.74%, close-close -3.61%, EPS surprise 43.71% (TRAI /api/events).
Correlation cluster 9 (avg ρ 0.666, 60d): MARA, RIOT, HOOD, MSTR, COIN (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
Highest 60d correlations: MSTR 0.73, COIN 0.73, SOFI 0.64, SNOW 0.54, GS 0.54 (TRAI /api/correlations).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

Premarket −6.47% (09:17): Binance $6.36B theft plus its own weak Q3 (crypto transaction revenue −55% y/y) (Benzinga, 2026-10-30; Investing.com).

Report links

2026-11-02 11:00 update

Q3 (10-27 AMC):
revenue $1.42B (+12%)
GAAP diluted EPS $0.51 (−16%): a miss vs consensus $0.55 (LSEG, Reuters), $0.56 (OneBullex, provider unnamed) and $0.57 (Investing.com, provider unnamed)
Adjusted (non-GAAP, new this quarter) EPS $0.60 (−3%): a beat vs Zacks $0.56 (uCapital/Yahoo)
net income $476M; $468M attributable to Robinhood; includes $67M unrealized loss (RVI mark)
crypto revenue $120M (−55%); event contracts $173M (>6×); options $399M (+31%)
net interest $415M (−9%); net deposits $15.7B
no FY26 total-opex outlook
CFO: October net deposits already >$13B month-to-date, incl. $6B Dell Trump Accounts contribution
Sources: 8-K ex. 99.1, SEC; Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-28
10-30 −7.21% (close $84.99): print hangover, plus the Binance theft (crypto cluster), plus the Ohio agreement to stop new sports event contracts by 11-02 (C&D from the Ohio Casino Control Commission 10-02, agreement 10-26; same pattern as Michigan; 10-Q, SEC; event contracts were $173M in Q3, ~20% of transaction revenue; Ohio's share not disclosed; MarketBeat; Law360). TRAI residualZ +0.09: fully beta-explained (beta60 4.24).
October operating data: no date announced. Past cadence: ~10th–13th of the following month (Oct-25 data on 11-13-2025; Aug-26 on 9-10-2026; TradingCalendar). My inference: ~11-10/13.
Day 2 (11:15 ET): +1.47% vs prior close (gap +0.66%), below a naive 4.24×SPY beta (~+2.8%). BTC −0.66% since Fri 16:00 ET; COIN −2.26%, MSTR +3.27%. Correlations now: COIN 0.79, MSTR 0.76, GS 0.60, JPM 0.08 (cluster 7, asOf 10-30). No filings today.
2026-11-02 11:00 report

2026-11-06 16:00 update — cluster-8 divergent bounce

Yahoo Fri close ~+3.21% (80.91) while COIN/MSTR soft — within-crypto split under STRESS close. Cluster 8 (HOOD–COIN 0.81). Not on 8:58 SM/MR lists. Source: 16:00 report.