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JPM — JPMorgan Chase
_Last updated 2026-11-06 16:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
The largest US bank: consumer and community banking (deposits, cards, mortgages), corporate and investment bank (advisory, markets, payments), and asset and wealth management.
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Q3 2026 (2026-10-13 BMO): NII $27.1B (+13% y/y); NII ex-Markets $24.7B (+6%) (JPM 3Q26 presentation, SEC). Q4 guide: NII ex-Markets ~$25.5B, total ~$28B. Preliminary 2027 NII ex-Markets ~$107B (3Q26 transcript, JPM IR; figures as summarized in search results, PDF not opened in full). Reuters described it as a "rare profit miss" (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-13).
- Next print 2027-01-14 BMO (TRAI). Monday sensitivities: ISM at 10:00, Treasury borrowing estimates (Mon) and refunding (Wed 11-04) (16:00 report §6).
TRAI data
- 2026-10-30: −1.90%, relVol 1.13, rangePos 0.19 → mean_reversion fade-long in both runs. After hours +0.17%.
- Earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 1.31% (0.71 ATR), continuation 25%. A low-gap name.
- Correlations (60d): WFC 0.77, C 0.65, SCHW 0.62, BAC 0.62, BLK 0.60. Bank cluster 2.
Report links
2026-11-02 11:00 update
- Why it fell 10-30 (−1.90%): no company release. Sector sell-off, on below-average volume (MarketBeat, 2026-10-30; machine-generated "why", weak). Theme: AI-agent deposit-flight fear. JPM was −5% since Meta's Muse launch on 9-08 (BAC −18%, SCHW −14%). Dimon is blocking external agents that use shared logins; Mayo says Q3 showed no evidence of deposit flight (AI In Context/CNBC, 2026-10-30; secondary).
- Catalysts: next print 2027-01-14 BMO (TRAI). Fed capital final rule "by year end" (Reuters 10-26). Midterms Tue 11-03.
- Day 2 (11:15 ET): gap +1.14%, open→now +0.05%, at VWAP; lags XLF (+1.67%). Correlation to HOOD is ~0 (0.08), so JPM and HOOD are separate bets.
- 2026-11-02 11:00 report
2026-11-06 16:00 update — SM Financials ×3 suspended; soft Fri
- On 8:58 SM Financials ×3 with V and C (suspended): z1d −3.12, residualZ −1.38. Yahoo Fri close ~−0.84% (334.51).
- Cluster 2 banks (not payments). Next TRAI 2027-01-14 BMO (avg |gap| only 1.31%). No near-term company print. Do not reactivate SM (S-141). Feeds S-150. Source: 16:00 report.