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TMUS — T-Mobile US
_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._
Business
US national wireless carrier and fixed-wireless broadband provider. Runs the T-Satellite direct-to-cell service on Starlink satellites (Rolling Out, 2026-10-09).
Catalysts, guidance & news
- Reports Wed 2026-10-28 AMC (TRAI /api/events). Jul 23 print: gap −7.96% despite a +14.9% EPS surprise.
- Starlink relationship: exclusive D2D partnership through at least end-2026; T-Mobile has removed Starlink branding from its T-Satellite page, but the partnership is not ended. The outgoing CFO (Sept 10) called Starlink "not a competitive threat" in wireless (Light Reading). "Partner turned competitor" as the driver of today's drop is a whiggity hypothesis, unsourced.
- TMUS −5.0% at ~11:15 ET Oct 23 (Yahoo; ~1.35 ATR).
TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)
- Sector (TRAI): Telecom. Oct 22: +3.28%, relVol 0.98, ATR 3.72%, beta60 -0.66, indicated gap -5.43%, signals: none (TRAI /api/latest).
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28 AMC, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
- Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 4.13% (1.5 ATR), max |gap| 7.96%, gap fill rate 25%, continuation 75%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -0.42% (TRAI /api/events).
- Recent events: 2025-10-23 BMO: gap -0.73%, day-1 -2.55%, close-close -3.26%, EPS surprise 0.39%; 2026-02-11 BMO: gap -4.06%, day-1 +9.52%, close-close +5.07%, EPS surprise -8.92%; 2026-04-28 AMC: gap +3.78%, day-1 +2.27%, close-close +6.13%, EPS surprise 15.09%; 2026-07-23 BMO: gap -7.96%, day-1 -3.03%, close-close -10.75%, EPS surprise 14.86% (TRAI /api/events).
- Correlation cluster 10 (avg ρ 0.717, 60d): CMCSA, TMUS, T, VZ (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
- Highest 60d correlations: VZ 0.88, T 0.84, CMCSA 0.56, PEP 0.42, NFLX 0.37 (TRAI /api/correlations).
Report links
2026-10-30 10:00 update
- 10-28 AMC Q3: postpaid net account adds 274k; ARPA $155.73 (+4%). FY26 ARPA growth ~3.5% (from 2.5–3%), core adj. EBITDA $37.35–37.45B, adj. FCF $18.7–18.8B (both raised at the midpoint) (8-K Ex. 99.2). CEO: "I see no room for an MVNO with SpaceX" (Mobile World Live, 2026-10-30). Reaction 10-29: opened +1.7%, closed −0.53%.
- 10-30 ~10:13 ET: +5.73%, above OR30 high (+4.60%), +1.6% vs VWAP. No same-day catalyst found; the whole cluster is bid (VZ +3.2%, T +3.1%, CMCSA +3.3%) on a Nasdaq −2.9% day.
- 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot
2026-11-02 09:00 update
- Pre-market −2.6% to −3.1% (VZ −2.8%, T −2.5%) on a Washington Post report (relayed by secondary aggregators) that SpaceX is in talks to buy Boost Mobile from EchoStar or use its network; ECHO +7.1%. TMUS was a Friday long-momentum candidate (+6.2%), so the gap runs against the signal (S-116). Unconfirmed by the companies as of ~09:30 ET.
- 2026-11-02 09:00 report §5d
2026-11-02 13:00 update
- Reversed the −1.39% opening gap (SpaceX–Boost report) to +1.57% at 13:10 ET, above OR30 high, +0.94% vs VWAP; VZ +0.66%, T +0.35% (Yahoo 5m). Per the Post, a Boost deal or network access may need AT&T/T-Mobile consent (Investing.com, 2026-11-02). Unconfirmed by the companies.
- 2026-11-02 13:00 report