AMZN — Amazon

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Online stores and third-party seller services, AWS (cloud/AI infrastructure, Bedrock, custom chips), advertising, subscriptions (Prime) (Amazon IR).

What moves it short-horizon

• AWS growth and margin, capex/FCF, operating income vs guide, ad growth; GAAP EPS swings with Anthropic marks (Pepperstone, 2026-10-23).

Catalysts, guidance & news

2026-10-29 16:00 update

• Q3 2026 (10-29 AMC): sales $201.9B (+12%), EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 estimated. AWS $46.0B, +39.3% (fastest in ~5 years), AWS OI $17.8B. TTM FCF −$42.4B. Q4 guide: sales $240–247B, OI $28.5–33.5B. 2026 cash capex ~$220B maintained; Jassy projects AWS growth >40% in 2027–28 (release via StockTitan, 2026-10-29; CNBC).
• After hours: −7.6% (Yahoo ~4:12 PM) vs −9% (CNBC); still moving. TRAI ρ: GOOGL 0.72, ETN 0.51, ANET 0.41, ORCL 0.40, so AI-infra longs face Friday gap risk.

• Q3 2026: Thu 2026-10-29 AMC, call 5:00 PM ET (Amazon IR, 2026-10-15). Reaction session Fri 10-30.
• Guide: sales $197–202B (Prime Day shifted into Q2, ~400 bp headwind), operating income $22.5–26.5B; consensus EPS ~$1.96 on ~$202B; AWS ~35% expected; options ~±7.4% (Pepperstone, above). Other AWS bars: "30–35%" (Investing.com, 2026-10-19); buy-side ~42% vs Street ~37% (Finvaulta/JPM desk, 2026-10-21).
• Q2 2026 (2026-07-30 AMC): sales $200.6B (+20%), op income $27.5B, AWS +37% to $42.2B (39.4% margin incl. $551M energy-contract gains), ads +26%; EPS $5.75 incl. $53.4B pre-tax gain (mainly Anthropic); capex $53.1B, 2026 plan ~$220B (from $200B); trailing FCF −$7.6B; stock +15.3% next day (Pepperstone, above). AWS backlog ~$496B (Investing.com, above).
• Anthropic stake carried at $190.4B at 6/30 (Pepperstone). Anthropic reportedly targeting a November IPO; leaked S-1 cites capacity friction with AWS/Google/Microsoft (TechCrunch, 2026-10-20) — unscheduled headline risk.
• 2026-10-19: +4.85% on a top-pick upgrade (PT $350) (Investing.com, above). 2026-10-23: −0.58% at 14:05 ET (Yahoo 5m).
• Data caveat: TRAI EPS surprises +68.18% (Q1) and +214.89% (Q2) are Anthropic marks vs adjusted consensus (S-040).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Consumer Disc.. Oct 22: -4.57%, relVol 1.37, ATR 2.84%, beta60 1.75, indicated gap -0.58%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_long (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-10-29 AMC, tradingDaysUntil 4, sessionsToReaction 5, gap risk elevated (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 9.40% (3.51 ATR), max |gap| 12.53%, gap fill rate 25%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.65% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-10-30 AMC: gap +12.22%, day-1 -2.35%, close-close +9.58%, EPS surprise 25.2%; 2026-02-05 AMC: gap -8.98%, day-1 +3.76%, close-close -5.55%, EPS surprise -0.49%; 2026-04-29 AMC: gap +3.85%, day-1 -2.97%, close-close +0.77%, EPS surprise 68.18%; 2026-07-30 AMC: gap +12.53%, day-1 +2.48%, close-close +15.32%, EPS surprise 214.89% (TRAI /api/events).
• Options: IV30 43.1%, RV20 32.6%; implied earnings move ±7.74% (expiry 2026-10-30, 0.82× hist avg |gap|) (TRAI /api/options, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Correlation cluster 20 (avg ρ 0.723, 60d): GOOGL, AMZN (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: GOOGL 0.72, ETN 0.51, MSFT 0.50, ANET 0.41, ORCL 0.40; most negative: AAPL -0.47, LIN -0.44, RBLX -0.43 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Linkages

• GOOGL 0.72 (cluster 20), ETN 0.51, MSFT 0.50, ANET 0.41, ORCL 0.40, VST 0.35, VRT 0.32 — trades as an AI-infrastructure name; TRAI's "Consumer Disc." label groups it with HD/LOW (ρ ≈ 0) (S-001). AAPL −0.47.
• 2026-02-06: AMZN −5.55% but VRT +10.03%, NVDA +7.87%, AVGO +7.22% (Yahoo daily, my calc) — capex read-through can be opposite-signed (report §4.2).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Premarket −7.1% (09:19): holiday-quarter sales guide below Street, Q3 cash outflow, higher 2027 capex signalled (figure unverified) (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-10-30). Consumption-software sympathy: SNOW −2.75%, DDOG −4.08%, MDB −3.88%, NET −3.88%.

Report links

• 2026-10-23 14:00 — mega-cap earnings week
• Also referenced: 2026-10-23 10:00 — software rebound (S-001 sector-label example)
• 2026-10-29 16:00 — AI-infra momentum vs capex financing; INTC/AMZN after-close

2026-10-29 17:00 update

• 17:00 follow-up: after hours −6.28% at 17:02 (from −7.6% at 16:12); headline blames sales and capex guidance (Seeking Alpha). Whether 2027 capex was quantified is unverified.

• 2026-10-29 17:00 — postclose movers & Friday gap risk
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-10-30 10:00 update

• 10-30: 2026 cash-capex plan held at ~$220B on the Q3 call. It had been raised from ~$200B (Feb) on the Q2 call, 2026-07-30 (CNBC, 2026-10-29; DCD). TTM FCF −$42.4B. Q3 purchases of P&E $77.3B (vs $58.7B est.); cash capex $75.9B per the CFO. 2027: "meaningfully more", no dollar figure (Business Insider). whiggity's "raised to $220B at Q3" claim was checked and corrected (report §10). ~10:13: −2.89% (opened −4.6%). Its 10-29 AMC print is missing from /api/events (S-079 revision).
• 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot

2026-11-02 15:00 update

• LM day 2: +3.34% at 15:10 ET but below VWAP (250.71) after ~+4.7% at midday. Catalyst: Phillip Securities upgrade to Buy, PT $330 from $320, citing AWS +39.3% (24/7 Wall St., 2026-11-02; MarketDash, 2026-11-02). Faded with the afternoon AI/QQQ slide. No print risk.
• 2026-11-02 15:00 report §3

2026-11-02 16:00 update

• Closed +2.20%, below VWAP (−1.9%) and inside OR30, after +3.34% at 15:07. It faded in the last hour with QQQ (−1.36%).
• Report