LOW: Lowe's

_Last updated 2026-10-30 10:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Home-improvement retailer. Same rate-sensitive remodeling exposure as HD (Kalkine, 2026-10-23).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Sympathy peers (whiggity consult): SHW/TSCO are not in TRAI's universe (unverified). LOW–WMT ρ 0.33 (weak). HD–LOW 0.92 is the real pair (consult).
• 2026-10-22: +3.97% to $204.37 on the yields/housing move. No company-specific catalyst found (CNBC, 2026-10-22). Mean-reversion fade-short candidate Oct 23.
• 2026-10-23: −2.76% at 10:14 ET as yields rose after hot PMI prices and UMich inflation expectations (Yahoo chart API; report §1, §5).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-18 BMO (TRAI).

TRAI data (2026-10-23 8:53 AM ET premarket run; daily stats = Oct 22 session)

• Sector (TRAI): Consumer Disc.. Oct 22: +3.97%, relVol 1.31, ATR 2.43%, beta60 0.41, residual z 2.9, indicated gap -0.98%, signals: mean_reversion_fade_short (TRAI /api/latest).
• Next earnings: 2026-11-18 BMO, gap risk None (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
• Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 2.96% (1.24 ATR), max |gap| 4.75%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 50%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -0.35% (TRAI /api/events).
• Recent events: 2025-11-19 BMO: gap +4.75%, day-1 -0.70%, close-close +4.03%, EPS surprise 3.61%; 2026-02-25 BMO: gap -4.43%, day-1 -1.21%, close-close -5.59%, EPS surprise 1.93%; 2026-05-20 BMO: gap -2.01%, day-1 +3.30%, close-close +1.23%, EPS surprise 2.12%; 2026-08-19 BMO: gap +0.63%, day-1 +1.38%, close-close +2.02%, EPS surprise 4.19% (TRAI /api/events).
• Correlation cluster 12 (avg ρ 0.65, 60d): MCD, HD, LOW (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
• Highest 60d correlations: HD 0.92, PEP 0.55, NKE 0.53, MDLZ 0.53, BKNG 0.53 (TRAI /api/correlations).

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Fade-short candidate; premarket +1.07% (08:10, thin). No news. Treat with HD as one position (S-078).

Report links

• 2026-10-23 10:00 — software rebound

2026-10-29 17:00 update

• 10-29: +4.48% to $207.28 with no confirmed company news (rates, plus an unverified TradingKey "early Black Friday" note). mean_reversion fade-short candidate, paired with HD (ρ 0.92, one position). Next print 11-18.

• 2026-10-29 17:00 — postclose movers & Friday gap risk
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-10-30 10:00 update

• ~10:13 ET: opened +1.42%, now +0.58%, below OR30 (+0.72…+2.14%), −0.48% vs VWAP. OR-failure condition met; one position with HD (S-078).
• 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot

2026-10-30 14:00 update

• Rate beta (my calc, 2026 YTD): −2.07% per +10bp in the 10y (t −8.0; SPY beta 0.27). LOW–BAC ρ 0.01, LOW–DUK 0.47 (TRAI).
• 14:14 ET: +1.11% (open +1.42%), inside OR30, +0.19% vs VWAP. It has held up better than HD. The 2-factor model gives +0.59%.
• Rate-driven up days (≥+3% with 10y ≤ −3bp, n 37, 2016–2026): next-day o→c mean +0.12%, 43% down, so no reliable fade. October 2026 cases faded (10-08 −1.33%, 10-22 −1.60%).
• Backdrop: FY outlook cut to the low end (~$92B sales, ~flat), Q3 EPS expected ~−7% y/y (MarketBeat, 2026-10-11, secondary). Next print Wed 11-18 BMO, 9:00 ET call, "tentative" (Lowe's).
• 2026-10-30 14:00 — stress label live, rate complex (banks/utilities/housing), HD/LOW rate beta, Friday→Monday set-up