MO: Altria Group

_Last updated 2026-11-06 13:00 ET from report. Prior body retained; see 13:00 update below._ Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

US cigarettes (Marlboro) plus smoke-free/oral nicotine. TRAI sector: Consumer Staples; cluster 4. Its closest link is PM (ρ 0.69).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Next earnings: Thu 2026-10-29, release ~7:00 ET, webcast 9:00 ET (Altria IR, 2026-10-15). The same morning has GDP/PCE at 8:30 and ARES/OWL/TPG/MA/CAT prints.
• FY26 adj. EPS guide $5.61–$5.72; Q3 consensus $1.51 / $5.31B; Q2 $1.48 missed $1.50 (MarketBeat, 2026-10-22; secondary). Zacks: $1.50 / $5.31B, Rank #2 as of 10-14 (Zacks via AInvest). whiggity's $1.42–1.45 is rejected; $1.45 was the Q3 2025 actual (consult item 3).
• Last print baseline (Q2 2026): Marlboro shipments −7.4% (H1 −7.6%), total domestic cigarettes −3.2% (−4.5% adjusted), discount +67%; on! −4.2% (49.9M cans); on! PLUS in 120k stores, national 12 mg expansion planned for Q3 (Altria Q2 release, 2026-07-30). whiggity's −9% to −11% Marlboro run-rate is not supported (open).
• Read-through from PM (open): PMI is raising US ZYN investment in Q4 (20-pouch cans, transitional support; US ZYN +4.2% in Q3). Pressure on on! is an inference, not a disclosed fact (consult item 7).
• Macro collision: release ~7:00, GDP/PCE 8:30. Whether macro dominates MO's opening gap is S-057.

TRAI data

• Oct 22: +3.03%, residual z 1.11, beta60 −0.99; mean_reversion fade-short candidate for 10-23 (/api/latest). 10-23 result: −2.31% c-c, o→c −1.89% (the fade worked; Yahoo).
• Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 5.42% (2.73 ATR), fill 0/4, continuation 75%, avg day-1 in gap direction +1.98%; close-close −7.81, −5.34, +6.52, −9.32 (/api/events). Gaps tend to extend.
• Core-semis avg ρ −0.60, the most negative in cluster 4 (/api/correlations, my calc).
• Replay MR on MO: n 3, mean 0.00% (/api/scorecard, my calc).

Linkages (Yahoo daily, 19 prints, my calc)

• MO print → PM same-sign 74% (ρ 0.54); KO/PG/KDP ρ ≈ 0. XLP |move| 0.87% vs 0.64% baseline.

2026-10-30 09:00 update

• Long_momentum candidate; premarket +1.39% (09:18) with the staples bid (KO/PEP/PG ~+2%, MDLZ +7.1%). Report: preferred LM long today.

Report links

• 2026-10-23 16:00 — consumer staples

2026-10-29 17:00 update

• Q3 2026 (10-29 BMO): adj. EPS $1.52 vs $1.51; FY26 guide raised to $5.66–5.74; buyback expanded by $1B through 2027-12-31; on! shipments +13.3% (Altria IR; transcript).
• 10-29: +5.15% (gap +3.15%, rangePos 0.98, relVol 1.67). long_momentum candidate for 10-30 (earnings-reaction day, S-066/S-072). After hours +0.21%. MDLZ +3.15% after hours (ρ 0.60).

• 2026-10-29 17:00 — postclose movers & Friday gap risk
• 2026-10-30 09:00 — premarket rotation, INTC/crypto shocks, BMO prints

2026-10-30 10:00 update

• ~10:13 ET: opened +1.75%, now +1.29%, below OR30 (+1.38…+3.99%), −1.35% vs VWAP. The long failed its OR despite the staples bid; PG/KO/PEP were also below their opens. Day-2 gap-and-fade question → S-083.
• 2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot

2026-10-30 14:00 update

• 14:14 ET: +2.15%, inside OR30, +0.13% vs VWAP. MO shares a factor with the utilities: MO–DUK ρ 0.56, MO–SO 0.47 (TRAI). 2026 YTD: SPY beta −0.81, rate beta −0.79%/10bp (my calc). A Monday rates back-up (strong ISM) would hit MO and the utilities together.
• After VIX-spike Fridays (n 13), MO's Monday gap was up only 38% of the time (mean −0.23%), and Monday c/c mean was −0.39%. It tends to lag the rebound.
• 2026-10-30 14:00 — stress label live, rate complex (banks/utilities/housing), HD/LOW rate beta, Friday→Monday set-up

2026-10-30 15:00 update

• The Q3 print (10-29 BMO) is now in hand (see Catalysts and TRAI events: gap +3.15%, c/c +5.15%, surprise +0.91%); the 'Next earnings' line above is historical. Next print est. 2027-01-28 (TRAI). Altria filed an S-3ASR shelf on 10-29 (EDGAR; contents not reviewed).
• Day 2 (15:12 ET): +1.88% vs the 10-29 close but only +0.13% open→now; it peaked at +3.99% in the first 30 minutes and is now −0.13% vs VWAP. Above the 10-29 VWAP (75.86). PM gave back its whole +2.81% high (−0.03%).
• Intraday β to SPY −0.95, ρ to ΔVIX +0.35: it acts as the bucket's hedge against CVNA/DASH. Last three prints' day-2 o→c: +3.32%, +1.79%, +1.14%; drift days 2–5: −9.42%, −4.97%, +0.28%.
• 2026-10-30 15:00: LM day-2 follow-through and weekend gap (CVNA/CMG/DASH/BA/MO)

2026-10-30 16:00 update

• Close: +1.64% but open→close −0.10%, range position 0.20, below VWAP; peaked at +3.99% in OR30. Week +5.0%, October +15.8% (Yahoo).
• 2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO

2026-11-06 13:00 update

• 60d home is now cluster 19 with PM (avg ρ 0.685 asOf 2026-11-05), not the food/HPC cluster 4.
• Thu universe residualZ −2.63 but no SM signal (z1d −0.30). Fri midday Yahoo ~−1.29% with PM ~−1.1% / BTI ~−3.1% while SPY green — tobacco co-move under staples residual crush.
• Source: 2026-11-06 13:00 staples PM residual crush.