PLTR: Palantir Technologies

_Last updated 2026-10-30 12:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Data/AI software: Gotham (government), Foundry and AIP (commercial). TRAI sector: Software. Top 60d ρ: NET 0.59, SNOW 0.58, ZS 0.56, TEAM 0.54, NOW 0.51 (TRAI /api/correlations, to 10-22).

What moves it short-horizon

• US commercial growth, the next-quarter revenue guide vs consensus, large government contracts, and valuation sentiment in the AI-software group (TIKR, 2026-10-30).

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026: Mon 2026-11-02 AMC; reaction Tue 11-03. Guide: revenue $2.160–2.164B, adj. op. income $1.292–1.296B; FY26 revenue $8.150–8.158B, US commercial > $3.424B (Palantir IR).
• Consensus Q3 ~$2.18B / EPS $0.41 (one source says $0.46, unresolved); FY26 consensus $8.22B is above the guide; the guide implies ~$2.4B for Q4 (TIKR). Options imply ~11% (GuruFocus).
• 2026-10-30: −4.91% at 12:02 ET, below VWAP, in the AI-capex software sell-off.

TRAI data

• Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 9.61% (2.23 ATR), gap fill 0% (TRAI /api/events, 2026-10-30).

Report links

• 2026-10-30 12:00 — Monday AMC prints

2026-11-02 10:00 update

• Reports tonight AMC, call 5:00 PM ET (Business Wire, 2026-10-12).
• MR fade-long: at ~10:15 ET +0.93% (o→now −0.38%), above VWAP, inside OR30.
• Cluster-5 peers are weak today: DDOG −4.6%, NET −4.4%. Cluster 5 has PLTR/DDOG/NET reporting within four sessions (S-085). TRAI is flat by 3:55, so there is no print exposure intraday (S-106 live case).
• Report

2026-11-02 14:00 update

• 14:06 ET −0.91%, below VWAP, inside OR30 (fade-long not working into the print).
• Options ~11.5% implied vs 10% 2-yr avg; puts at the 97th percentile of the past year; ~$5.1M ITM Feb 250 put buy (CNBC, 2026-11-02). TipRanks ±13.3%, last-4 avg abs move 12.79%.
• Implied Q4 ~$2.424B from unchanged FY guide (INDmoney arithmetic via ad-hoc-news).
• 2026-11-02 14:00 report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

• Q3: rev $2.313B (+96% y/y) vs ~$2.17–2.18B; adj EPS $0.44 vs $0.40–0.41; US commercial $984M (+148%) passed US government ($953M) for the first time. Q4 guide $2.649–2.653B; FY raised to $8.530–8.534B (cons ~$8.2B). Weak spot: total TCV +6% y/y, US commercial TCV $1.463B +11% (Q2 +153%), US commercial RDV +4% q/q (SEC ex-99.1, Yahoo).
• Regular session −3.13% (MR fade-long failed, closed at 0.05 of the range). AH whipsaw −3.3% to +5.4%, −0.2% at 16:32 ET. Implied ~11.5–13.3% vs TRAI 9.61%.
• Report

2026-11-02 17:00 update

• AH +1.18% at 17:05 ET (180.45; Public.com +1.38%), range 172 to 187.90. Rev $2.313B vs $2.18B cons, FY guide $8.530–8.534B vs prior $8.150–8.158B (Palantir IR; Investing.com 4:49 PM). Not on the 11-02 post-close candidate list.
• Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

• Q3 (11-02 AMC): beat, but total TCV +6% y/y (Q2 +49%), US commercial TCV +11% (Q2 +153%) (Investing.com, 2026-11-03; CNBC).
• AH path vs 178.34: +1.2% at 17:00 → −3.2% at 19:55 → −6.2% to −6.5% pre-market. On the suspended SM list; options had implied ~11–13%.
• Report