TRAI — Research — AAPL

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_Last updated 2026-10-30 12:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables/home/accessories, and Services (App Store, iCloud, advertising, payments, media) (Apple IR).

iPhone revenue and supply, Services growth, gross margin, holiday-quarter guide; FX and tariffs/memory costs (9to5Mac, 2026-07-30; MacRumors, 2026-10-06).

FY26 Q4: Mon 2026-11-02 AMC, release 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET, call 5:00 PM ET (Apple IR; MacRumors, above). Reaction session Tue 11-03. First call for CEO John Ternus.
Guide (2026-07-30): revenue +9–11% y/y, GM 47–48%, iPhone "mid-teens" growth, supply constraints to "increase significantly sequentially", FX ~2.5 pt headwind, Services similar to June quarter ex-FX (9to5Mac, above). Quarter (6/28–9/26) includes only launch-week iPhone 18 Pro and no iPhone Duo (MacRumors). Consensus EPS $2.00 (8 ests.) (EarningsMoves); revenue consensus not verified.
2026-07-30 print: Services' first sequential decline since 2022; supply warning; ~−6.5% after hours (9to5Mac); TRAI gap −8.58%, c-c −7.35%.
2026-10-23: iPhone Duo (foldable, ~$2,000) on sale; rationed supply, deliveries slipped to late January; mixed reviews; IDC sees Apple leading foldables by 2027 (Reuters via Yahoo, 2026-10-23); record high in the morning (IBD, 11:20 ET), −0.49% at 14:05 ET after +1.01% high (Yahoo 5m).

Consensus ~$113.1–113.3B revenue, EPS $1.98–1.99, near the top of the +9–11% guide (iThinkDiff; Benzinga). Nikkei-reported 15–20% cut to October iPhone 18 Pro component orders (JPMorgan: launch cadence, not demand); Loop Capital downgraded to Hold (79M vs 85M Street December-quarter iPhones).
10-30 12:02 ET: −0.77% vs QQQ −3.20%, again holding up in an AI-capex sell-off.

Sector (TRAI): Hardware. Oct 22: +1.23%, relVol 1.27, ATR 1.75%, beta60 -0.02, indicated gap -0.07%, signals: none; fails liquidity (ATR% < 2%) (TRAI /api/latest).
Next earnings: 2026-11-02 AMC, tradingDaysUntil 6, sessionsToReaction 7, gap risk none (outside 5-day window) (TRAI /api/events, asOf 2026-10-23).
Typical earnings reaction (last 4): avg |gap| 3.65% (1.62 ATR), max |gap| 8.58%, gap fill rate 50%, continuation 25%, avg day-1 move in gap direction -1.24% (TRAI /api/events).
Recent events: 2025-10-30 AMC: gap +2.06%, day-1 -2.39%, close-close -0.38%, EPS surprise 4.52%; 2026-01-29 AMC: gap -1.20%, day-1 +1.69%, close-close +0.46%, EPS surprise 6.34%; 2026-04-30 AMC: gap +2.77%, day-1 +0.46%, close-close +3.24%, EPS surprise 3.46%; 2026-07-30 AMC: gap -8.58%, day-1 +1.35%, close-close -7.35%, EPS surprise 6.74% (TRAI /api/events).
Options: IV30 27.4%, RV20 17.2%; implied earnings move ±5.05% (expiry 2026-11-06, 1.38× hist avg |gap|) (TRAI /api/options, asOf 2026-10-22).
Correlation cluster 23 (avg ρ 0.503, 60d): AAPL, LIN (TRAI /api/correlations, asOf 2026-10-22).
Highest 60d correlations: LIN 0.50, RBLX 0.49, ABBV 0.43, SPOT 0.30, PM 0.30; most negative: AMZN -0.47, ETN -0.41, VRT -0.36 (TRAI /api/correlations).

Anti-AI-capex: negative ρ to AMZN (−0.47), VRT (−0.36), ORCL/ANET (−0.32), NVDA (−0.22); rose +1.23% on Oct 22 when QQQ −2.86% (S-043 question). Not tradeable in TRAI today (ATR% < 2%).

Reports Mon 2026-11-02, call 5:00 PM ET (Apple IR). Backdrop: Q3 global smartphone shipments −20% y/y (Counterpoint) / −22% (IDC prelim), memory-driven (Counterpoint); INTC's PC warning (09:00 report). 10-30 ~10:13: −1.01%.
2026-10-30 10:00 — open follow-through, telecom/pharma bid, software split, events blind spot

Results 4:30 PM ET tonight, first call for CEO John Ternus. LSEG consensus revenue $113.39B, Services $31.56B (~+10%, slowest in 3+ yrs), iPhone $56.54B (Reuters via Investing.com, 2026-11-02).
Oppenheimer: FQ4 $112.9B / $1.96, FY27 EPS 7% below consensus, 150 bp Dec-qtr products GM hit from memory (Investing.com, 2026-11-02). Like-for-like GM base ~48.1% ex tariff refunds.
Options: implied just under 4% vs 2.5% 2-yr avg; heavy put buying; −0.65 correlation to the Nasdaq 100 (CNBC, 2026-11-02). 14:06 ET −2.2%, below OR30 low.
2026-11-02 14:00 report

FQ4 (8-K 16:30:23 ET): rev $114.48B vs $113.39B LSEG; iPhone $57.58B vs $56.54B; Services $31.57B (in line); EPS $2.10 (incl. $0.05 tariff refunds) vs $1.99 LSEG; GM 47.9% incl. ~1 pt tariff refunds vs 50.1% prior quarter; inventory $14.54B vs $5.72B a year ago (SEC ex-99.1, CNBC). No guidance in the release (call 5 PM).
Regular session −1.83% (338.32). AH −0.6% to −1.0% at 16:32. No TRAI ρ link, no bucket.
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AH +0.50% at 17:05 ET (340.00; Public.com +0.67%), turning green during the 5 PM call. December-quarter guidance not found at writing. A "5–7%" figure in search results came from a prediction-market page (llmodds.com), not Apple: rejected. Analyst Dec-qtr estimate $153.15B / EPS $2.91 (AskTraders).
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Dec-qtr guide (call, CFO Parekh): revenue +7–10% y/y, Services +8–9%, GM 45–46% vs 46.3% LSEG avg, opex $20.4–20.8B; Ternus: memory pricing 'unprecedented', rising beyond December (CNBC, 2026-11-03; transcript). Closes last night's open question.
AH path vs 338.32 close: +0.2% at 17:00 → −2.8% at 17:30 / 19:55 → −4.1% at 09:00 (Yahoo). The guide came in prepared remarks, so the 17:05 read in the 17:00 report was in-call and wrong-signed (S-135).
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