ON: onsemi

_Last updated 2026-10-30 12:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

Business

Power and sensing semiconductors: silicon carbide (SiC) for EVs and energy storage, automotive and industrial analog/power, and AI data-center power. TRAI sector: Semis. Top 60d ρ: ADI 0.72, TXN 0.71, MCHP 0.67, TSM 0.59, LRCX 0.55.

Catalysts, guidance & news

• Q3 2026 (ended 10-02): Mon 2026-11-02 AMC, call 5:00 PM ET (onsemi IR, 2026-10-15). Guide: revenue $1.65–1.75B, non-GAAP GM 40–42%, EPS $0.81–0.93 (Tickeron).
• Consensus $0.88 / $1.71B (Zacks via Yahoo, 2026-10-28); Tickeron cites LSEG ~$0.83–0.84 / $1.67B. Beat EPS in 6 of the last 8 (MarketBeat).
• Rose ~5% after the Q2 print, then drifted ~15% lower (Tickeron). 2026-10-30: −5.87% at 12:02 ET with ADI/TXN/MCHP in the semis rout.

TRAI data

• Last 4 prints: avg |gap| 2.73% (0.52 ATR), gap fill 100% (TRAI /api/events).

Report links

• 2026-10-30 12:00 — Monday AMC prints

2026-10-30 16:00 update

• Timing re-checked: Mon 11-02 after the close, call 5:00 PM ET (onsemi IR, 2026-10-15; Nasdaq copy). whiggity's "BMO" claim (12:00 and 16:00 consults) is wrong.
• Peer context: NXPI already reported 10-27 (auto revenue +13% y/y, Q4 guide $3.75–3.95B; NXP IR). China Caixin PMI lands Sun 20:45 EST, before ON's print day.
• 2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO §9

2026-11-02 12:00 update

• Firmest semis name into tonight's print: +2.26% at 12:10 ET, above OR30, at VWAP. Consensus EPS ~$0.88, rev ~$1.71B; guide $1.65–1.75B, EPS $0.81–0.93, GM 40–42% (Yahoo/Zacks). One aggregator lists BMO; IR says after close. 2026-11-02 12:00 — semis day 2, fade-longs fail, compute/memory vs analog split

2026-11-02 14:00 update

• Options implied ~±10–11% for tonight's print vs TRAI last-4 avg |gap| 2.73% (gaps −1.1/−0.5/−4.3/+5.0%). Proposal S-128 flags this mismatch. 14:06 ET −0.83%, below OR30 low.
• 2026-11-02 14:00 report

2026-11-02 16:00 update

• Q3 (8-K accepted 16:15:56 ET): rev $1,722.3M vs ~$1.70B, non-GAAP EPS $0.90 vs $0.88, GM 41.2%. Q4 guide rev $1,715–1,815M, EPS $0.95–1.07, GM 41.5–43.5%. GAAP EPS $0.79; the $0.90 is non-GAAP. Also announced: Ferric acquisition, $600M cash plus up to $175M in milestones, funded from cash, HSR, close Q4 2026, AI DC 2030 target > $3B (SEC ex-99.1; onsemi Ferric release; second 8-K = Ferric agreement, SEC).
• Correction (whiggity consult, verified): the Synaptics revision ($123/sh cash, ~$5.7B vs ~$7B in stock, after an unsolicited competing proposal) was announced 2026-10-01, not with Q3. The Q3 release only repeats it (onsemi, 2026-10-01). ON rose +4.18% on 10-01 and +6.01% on 10-02 (Yahoo). Don't attribute the 11-02 AH drop to Synaptics.
• AH −6.5% at 16:28 ET and −5.9% at 16:32 vs TRAI avg \|gap\| 2.73% (S-128 confirmed live). [CALC] S-131 expected gap ~−7%; S-132 peers ADI/MCHP/TXN ~−2%.
• Report

2026-11-02 17:00 update

• AH −2.44% at 17:05 ET (68.40; Yahoo, Public.com), recovering from −5.9% at 16:32 during the 5 PM call. AH range ~65 to 73.50. What was said on the call: no source yet. Yahoo's ON AH volume (~17k) is implausible; price only.
• With the move under 5%, the S-132 peer tag (ADI/MCHP/TXN) would not fire. Live case for S-133 (use the latest AH print, not 16:30).
• Report

2026-11-03 09:00 update

• AH path vs 70.11: −6.3% at 16:30 → −2.3% at 17:00 → −0.5% at 19:55 → +3.2% at 09:00, alongside a +3% semis rebound. Call content that drove the recovery: not found [UNV]. First in-sample ≥ 3% 16:30 move that reversed sign (S-133).
• Report