Utilities (regulated): NEE, DUK, SO

_Created 2026-10-30 14:00 ET from report. Screening/research, not investment advice._

What's in it (TRAI universe)

• Regulated utilities: NEE, DUK, SO. TRAI files them under "Materials/Utilities" with FCX, NEM, LIN, CEG and VST, but they form their own cluster 13 (avg ρ 0.805; DUK–SO 0.91, NEE–SO 0.77, NEE–DUK 0.74) (TRAI /api/correlations, 60d to 2026-10-22).
• CEG and VST (merchant/nuclear power) trade with the AI-power complex. See ai-power-infrastructure. On 10-30 they fell (CEG −1.15%, VST −2.72%) while the regulated group rose.

What drives short-horizon moves

• Two factors, both defensive: negative or low SPY beta (DUK −0.49, SO −0.45, NEE −0.14, XLU −0.10) plus duration (rate beta ≈ −1%/10bp: DUK −0.96, SO −1.06, NEE −1.02, XLU −0.90; t −4.8 to −6.1) (my calc, 2026 YTD daily, n 208). A risk-off day with falling yields lines both up. On 10-30, DUK's 2-factor model gave +1.6% and it actually rose +1.7%.
• Linked names: MO (MO–DUK 0.56, MO–SO 0.47), staples (DUK–MDLZ 0.54, DUK–PEP 0.52), and HD/LOW (NEE–LOW 0.43, LOW–DUK 0.47). Most negative: semis and data infrastructure (DUK–MU −0.41, DUK–DDOG −0.44) (TRAI).
• Data-center demand is a secondary growth narrative (NEE backlog; NEE Q3 release, 2026-10-21).

Catalysts

• DUK Q3 Thu 2026-11-05, call 10:00 ET (Duke Energy IR). SO 11-05 BMO, VST 11-06 BMO, CEG 11-09 BMO (TRAI /api/events). NEE already reported (10-21).
• Typical print reaction (TRAI, last 4): DUK avg |gap| 0.56% (0.32 ATR, 75% fill); SO 1.91% (1.01 ATR); NEE 1.63% (0.91 ATR); VST 1.49% (0.30 ATR); CEG 3.60% (0.81 ATR, 100% fill).
• Rate events: ISM (Mon 11-02), Treasury refunding (Mon 11-02 15:00 estimates, Wed 11-04 08:30 statement), payrolls (Fri 11-06).
• After VIX-spike Fridays (n 13, 2016–2026): XLU Monday gap mean +0.11%, median +0.16%, worst −0.52%; DUK +0.08% / +0.17%. Defensives gap the least.

2026-10-30 14:00

• NEE +2.49% (above OR30), DUK +1.66%, SO +1.25%, XLU +1.03% at 14:14 ET, with SPY −2.11% and the 10y −5.6bp.
• 2026-10-30 14:00 — stress label live, rate complex (banks/utilities/housing), HD/LOW rate beta, Friday→Monday set-up

2026-10-30 16:00 update

• PEG and ETR report Mon 11-02 BMO (ETR call 11:00 ET; EPS est. $1.71) (StockTitan, week of 11-02; secondary). These are the first regulated-utility reads before DUK/SO on Thu 11-05. My PEG-date volume inference was too noisy (month-end rebalances) to measure sympathy; untested.
• Close: DUK +1.21%, SO +0.76%, NEE +1.96%, XLU +0.72%; XLU October +10.17% (Yahoo, my calc).
• Source: 2026-10-30 16:00: close wrap, regime knife-edge, weekend energy, Monday BMO §6.

2026-11-05 16:00 update: DUK/SO BMO quiet; VST crush into Fri BMO

• DUK adj/reported EPS $1.99; narrows 2026 guide to $6.70–$6.80 (SEC release). Same-day ≈ +0.50%.
• SO reported $1.77 / ex-items $1.94; op rev +13% to $8.84B (Southern, 2026-11-05). Same-day ≈ +0.21%.
• Cluster 16 held up on the SPY −4.4% day (DUK/SO flat-green; NEE ≈ −0.2%) while merchant power sold off — consistent with VST–NEE ρ −0.31.
• Company notes: DUK · SO · VST (Fri BMO; see ai-power).
• Source: 2026-11-05 16:00 close wrap.

2026-11-06 09:00 update — VST BMO raise; CEG Mon peer

• Merchant VST printed BMO: Ongoing Ops Adj EBITDA raise/narrow to $7.1–$7.5B (2026) and initiated 2027 $7.7–$8.5B (Vistra IR) [V-P]. Still SM suspended residual; indicatedGapPct +5.86% (TRAI 8:58).
• CEG Mon 11-09 BMO; cluster 23 ρ 0.845 with VST (correlations asOf Nov 5). Regulated NEE/DUK/SO not the same trade as merchant AI-power.
• Source: 2026-11-06 09:00 Fri open.

2026-11-06 10:00 — VST webcast-hour + CEG sympathy

• VST ~+7% into/through 10:00 ET webcast after crush→guide-raise BMO; CEG ~+4% peer sympathy (cluster 23 avgRho 0.845) into Mon 11-09 BMO. SM stays suspended. Report.